CinnasVerses, cinnasverses@awful.systems

The author characterizes EA as being more “businesslike and professional” than LW, then spends the article talking about how their plans all hinge on getting a rich patron.

The image of the beautiful gardens floored with Astroturf is sad.

I don’t know if the prosecution will say the accused talked her friends into this, or her friends talked her into it. Some people think Ziz talked someone else into taking their own life. Either story will be horrid.

The killings of outsiders remind me of the Symbionese Liberation Army because they don’t even follow from the ideology, just young people talking themselves into attacking their parents, their landlord, and the cops. I think the only reason Ziz and friends did not try armed robbery was that it does not pay any more.

On Old! SneerClub, the Zizian whose parents were murdered in their home has been charged with the killing. The story is horrid so I will not link. I just wanted to make fun of cranks not stare at horrors.

And these people know that crypto and GameStop and their friends’ startups did not keep growing rapidly forever. They know that just because donations to EA had been rapidly growing they did not continue to accelerate. They have friends who covered the logistic function / sigmoid at Stanford. Another Californian had a witticism about the trouble getting someone to understand something when he is paid to misunderstand.

Scott Alexander funded a prediction-market startup which uses points not dollars. I think many of our friends lack the ovaries to bet significant numbers of real dollars on Kalshi or Polymarket.

I think the term came specifically from the problem “what to do with a windfall?” Since a diversified portfolio of conventional assets will tend to grow, the theoretical optimum is to invest it all today, but if there is a stock market crash or a spike in interest rates tomorrow this can lead to regrets. If you have trouble with this, a common strategy is to commit to investing 10-20% a month so you will get some high prices and some low prices. The same if you inherit some shares which are too much of your net worth and are worried about selling them before the price rises or keeping them until the price crashes: commit to selling a certain amount once per week or month and follow that. In casual language it gets conflated with the principle that a regular schedule of saving and investing is better than waiting until you get a raise or find the ‘right time’ to buy in.

I think the OP thought he understood this concept from reading Internet posts on crypto spaces and a better way to learn is a book or at least a blog by a trained and certified professional.

So this is the most reliable way to grow your capital in conventional assets. If you put 10% of every paycheque into a mix of stocks and bonds, not worrying too much about whether stock prices seem high or low, you will almost certainly have enough to generate a meaningful income after twenty years. The problems with this strategy in crypto seem many, including “no reason to expect that crypto prices will grow forever” “massive price manipulation by insiders” and “omnipresent theft and fraud.” That is like how quantum mechanics is powerful for manipulating the world, but quantum woo just lets you manipulate people. It would not make sense to read a Deepak Chopra book and say that physicists made up quantum mechanics to con people onto buying their self-help courses and fake medicine.

I think that backwards (like 1950s and earlier) views of autism are common in American psychiatry, but would love to hear more about his ideas from someone with relevant training. AFAIK no peer has ever commented on his biomedical blogging, like experts have commented on his eugenics promotion and cozy relationship with white supremacists and neoreactionaries. He never seems to have written for any professional venue either.

I think magazines like Liberal Currents, for a generally politically and culturally engaged white-collar audience, have been like this since they were printed on rag paper. The only difference between it and fandom drama is that the participants can rationalize it in fancier language.

I don’t understand the American social media and Old Media practice of everyone talking about some representative or candidate for the legislature. The only people who should be talking about a candidate for a district in New York State live in New York State.

The three American ratings agencies all decided that SpaceX bonds meet the minimum standards to be investment grade. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-gets-investment-grade-ratings-with-stable-outlook-top-agencies-2026-06-18/ I don’t own any American bonds and many people have a ‘government bonds only’ policy for reasons.

The moderators don’t exist. Sole moderator Oliver Habryka hasn’t commented on Reddit in 3 years, and is extremely busy with vastly more important things like AI safety, Lighthaven, and the actual LessWrong. Spammers continue indefinitely for months until, presumably, they earn a site-wide ban.

The guy who objects to delegating? I guess he decided that nobody on a forum can handle the responsibility of moderation?

Broadcom, Micron Technologies, and Intel too. NVIDIA is on the order of 7.5% of the S&P500 by market cap today. I would not bet real money that it will be there or above in 2029.

A Liberal Currents article talks about Steven Pinker, Dan Dennet, Lawrence Krauss, Richard Dawkins, and The Edge (a series of talks similar to Thiel’s Dialog).

I have no idea what dollar-cost averaging means to bitcoiners so I asked for an explanation. I think bitcoiners should read finance textbooks too.

(sarcasm) I’m saying that just because I get sucked off by guys does not mean I’m one of those queers! I don’t go to pride parades or leather bars or have fashion sense and everyone knows that is what ‘gay’ means. I’m as heterosexual as Ted Haggard. (end sarcasm)

Its a good idea to think of investing as an activity with a timeline in decades. If I buy a ten-year bond at 4% annual interest today, and a year later the same government is selling nine-year bonds at 5% interest, nobody will pay me the face value of my first bond. A year after that, maybe an eight-year bond is yielding 3%, and people will pay me more than face value for the first bond. I only know how much I made after inflation when ten years are up.

So the error there is that purchases are not actually independent. If say dot com stocks have been growing ten times as fast as the rest of the stock market, they can’t do that forever (eventually they will become the whole stock market, then the whole economy). If a government keeps offering higher and higher real interest on bonds, eventually it will default or trigger high inflation. So the wise investor buys lots of different things, knowing that today’s darling will be tomorrow’s ugly sister. I recommend a good textbook.

Could you explain? Dollar-cost averaging is a mainstream and effective concept in investing (if you buy investments with a series of contributions over time, you will get some when price are high and others when they are low, and the average price you pay will be in between). Traditional investments are cyclical, so one part of your portfolio will do poorly for 5 or 15 years, then suddenly it grows quickly while the things which were growing shrink.