RetroFedCinnasVerses, cinnasverses@awful.systems
Instance: awful.systems
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Posts and Comments by CinnasVerses, cinnasverses@awful.systems
techtakes
sneerclubComments by CinnasVerses, cinnasverses@awful.systems
Zero Interest Rates Policy from 2008-2022 and lack of antitrust enforcement in the USA lead to two things: incumbent software companies got bigger because they could borrow so much money and buy or crush their competition, and small software companies did not have to make profits now because investors tossed in more money and hoped they would make big profits one day. That world is dead but the industry has not adapted.
The LW insider thinks Aschenbrenner is trying to save a stake in Anthropic. I think that is very likely because the press release stressed “public stock position” and Anthropic is privately owned.
Edit / I don’t think Thomas Kwa of METR and LW understands leverage. The idea is that if you borrow $40.5b on $4.5b of collateral, you have $45b to invest but a 10% drop will wipe you out. Before you get there the bank will knock on your door and say “margin call! either you provide more collateral or we seize your assets.”
The op-ed writer is Adam Mastroianni who is a regular at Lighthaven. https://gwern.net/interview-inkhaven
He cites Andy Masley who is yet another autodidact with a cushy job in the Effective Altruism grantland. https://www.andymasley.com/ and Brian Potter who is an engineer at a think tank called the Institute for Progress https://ifp.org/author/brian-potter/ ("The overwhelming priority of energy policy must be making it easier to build things” which things angryDuckMeme.png)
The controversy about the 26-year-old with the 16-year-old wonders if the respondents are all in California which has a very high age of consent. More replies say that is rape than say “a client fails to pay a sex worker” is rape. Her audience ranks it equally with the bodice-ripper scenario (handsome top ravages someone who says no and struggles but really wants it in his or her heart).
That link is login-walled, how about summarizing it?
It was Yudkowsky-2008 who was astonished that “these CEOs and CTOs and hedge-fund traders, these folk of the mid-level power elite, seemed happier and more alive,” prompting David Gerard to ask “My dude, have you never heard of cocaine?” I don’t know if he had moved to the Bay Area yet but Yudkowsky-2025 had thoughts on LSD.
“Any Sufficiently Transparent Magic…” by Damien P. Williams talks about chatbots as sorcery https://pages.charlotte.edu/damien-p-williams/wp-content/uploads/sites/1342/2024/01/DPW_Any-Sufficiently-Transparent-Magic_Edits-PrePrint.pdf
I like to keep my analysis separate from my word-magic (making things happen by saying them). Greer is trying to remake the world and not just work up his courage which is a harmless and consensual form of word-magic.
Some far-right culture warrior is writing a book blaming the Zizian killings on their being trans rather than classic cult dynamics and apocalyptic ideas (*The Zizians: Inside a Trans Death Cult*) https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/andy-ngo/the-zizians/9780316599030/
Yes, skeptics classed Alcor and cryonics with homeopathy and Bigfoot. American skeptics had a Libertariam wing but I have not heard of Michael Shermer visiting Lighthaven.
The biggest crossover between skeptics and rationalists I can think of is Julia Galef, and she podcasted with a philosopher who debated Yud once then decided it was infra dignitatem. She also dropped out of CFAR when it became more open that the rationality workshops were for finding Sarah Connor.
I don’t think that the Rats are an offshoot of the Skeptics and New Atheists just a space which competed for the same young, male, educated, Autistic Anglo audience. They deliberately removed the parts of the skeptic curriculum which involve introspection and ethnography, because they all wanted to run some grift on their audiences so the audiences needed poor epistemic hygiene.
I also don’t get it because they already hate pre-social-media institutions, so why are they still angry that American journalists were bad at transmitting public health science at the beginning of COVID? Even if you believe in a COVID lab leak, the United States broke the global public health response while countries in East Asia and the South Pacific showed what to do. There are lab-leakers who blame a partnership between traitorous American scientists and sinister Chinese labs to conduct research that was illegal in the USA.
Edit / this guy just comes out and uses COVID lab leak theories as an analogy for AI-box fantasies, but these people don’t just cite it as a parallel, they are MAD about what they think happened and want you to be mad too.
That was the party line in the American foreign-policy crowd since winter 2021/2022. They thought that if the ‘great power’ Russia invaded, Ukraine would fall. So Burja’s tweet was not even original, just the same thing any 23-year-old staffer in a new suit was writing.
Decker is a GMU Econ PhD student getting distracted by Twitter and Aella. I don’t think he has figured out that for a nerdy dude, “economist/quant” is a much better career path than “social media provocateur” (so delete X, get your PhD, sign on with a financial-services company, and frolic with sex workers on your own time).
Edit / he dropped out of his PhD program but wants to start a new one at Cambridge. I would not bet that he becomes Dr. Decker. He also has a date-me Google Doc.
He is a successful pulp writer and pop nonfiction writer and fundraiser, and women like him, but he does not seem like a riveting speaker. In some ways his withdrawal to Twitter and Washington State makes it easier for fans to imagine that he is whatever they need.
He cites Samo Burja and Nicholas Decker? And Cremieux is the twitter account he cites second most often, with Richard Hanania in 4th place?
Samo Burja ("How Roman Emperors Handled the Succession Problem"), SlateScott, and POTUS have all expressed interest in Herbert Hoover. Is this part of a broader online right thing in the USA?
I think Yud does not want the responsibility. LessWrong and Effective Altruism attracted so many people, and he discovered that trying to manage the communities was too much work, so he just tweets and publishes fanfic. This is convenient for his fans because they can pick and chose which of his ideas are the Real Yud Thought.
In a quick DuckDuckGo I can’t find any site that claims Samo Burja has a degree.
His concept of live player is just another way of saying that most people are NPCs. The manuscript appears to call Elon Musk an engineer which is like calling Cheops an architect (alternatively, Musk must “fundamentally understand engineering").
Here is a (partially paywalled) blog post on why the indexes started to bend the rules https://rupakghose.substack.com/p/s-and-p-nasdaq-and-the-spacex-ipo
Willo2 writes:
“I’m shocked, shocked! to find that gambling is going on in here”
A company has to disclose a lot of numbers backed by serious legal penalties before an IPO.
Whenever a stock market has gone up 29% in a year and a New Era story is circulating, people with corner offices and Savile Row suite start to do stupid **. I think that is why financiers started to bend the rules.
S&P have decided not to allow SpaceX early entry into the index after all https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/sp-global-keeps-fast-entry-proposal-unchanged-spacex-listing-looms-2026-06-04/
“To be included in the S&P 500, a company must be profitable under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in its most recent quarter as well as for the sum of its most recent four quarters, according to one of the rules S&P left unchanged.”
Edit / the author of the article “is an economics student at George Mason University with interests in tax policy, immigration, and housing. He normally posts about politics on X and Bluesky and occasionally writes long-form articles and essays on his Substack.” So he has probably taken a class with Robin Hanson.
As a palette cleanser to the messed up people on social media and in web magazines, I recommend reading Bob Altemeyer’s book on the sex lives of students at a minor Canadian university. https://www.lulu.com/shop/bob-altemeyer/sex-and-youth/paperback/product-4414777.html People who search tube sites or fill out sexuality quizzes from an influencer are not typical people any more than Wikipedia editors are.
“EA and Rationalist policy organizations are scaling in DC”
Just a reminder that the rationalists already own two event spaces in the Bay Area and the Effective Altruists briefly owned one in England and one in the Czech Republic as well as an institute at Oxford University. Both of their existing spaces are losing money and had to beg for it last winter.
“This project needs a champion, but it’s a thing someone can simply choose to do” sounds very different when it means “you can actually try slacklining with the cool strangers in the park” and when it means “someone could lend us another $20 million for 20 years on easy terms.” And seeing the lesson of FTX as “don’t look weird” not “effective altruists are fraudsters and hypocrites” is a take.
Jeffrey Epstein fantasized about something very similar. Gwern has a blog post about a sperm bank which promised to accept only the highest-quality donations.
In March 2025, someone skeeted that “Master Sun says: do not lead your troops into land where there is nothing for them to eat” seems obvious but Pete Hegseth would not remember that his troops needed food. One year later his aircraft carriers were feeding sailors spoiled meat and had a shortage of working toilets.
Major investment analysis firm Morningstar is looking for words on the SpaceX IPO and picked “We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO” (Independent UK).
Even something as simple as picking a Total US Stock Market index fund instead of a S&P500 fund or NASDAQ-100 fund would reduce your exposure. If you control your investments, disinvesting is not that hard.
I never heard of Justine Tunney before but she has a Wikipedia page.
I think its worse than a P/E ratio of 100. It is 100 times revenue. Earnings in this context mean profits, so a company which is losing money has no P/E ratio. The argument is that if $100 of stock corresponds to $10 of profit last year (P/E 10), that is probably a better buy than if $100 of stock corresponds to $5 of profit last year (P/E 20).
And yes, this looks to me like a crypto rugpull crossed with all the tricks which keep Tether prices and Tesla shares floating in midair.
Ouch, “picking up a cute young thing at the bar and hot tub at the ski resort” “building a happy working relationship with a sex worker” and “romantic pair-bonding” are three different skills! No wonder he thinks looks and body language are so important if he is trying to take women straight to bed.
RMN is a pro wrestling event, but he probably means Red Means No, Aella’s consensual-nonconsent orgies.
Did you try RationalWiki or the page for Hanson himself? Read it next to Taleb’s The Black Swan patiently explaining to clever but inexperienced young men that you cannot perfectly predict the future just diversify and prepare for different scenarios.
A lot of rats give Robin Hanson credit for things which are much older (prediction markets for elections are recorded back to the 16th century, The Great Filter was huge in Cold War pop culture). Werner Antweiler at UBC ran a prediction market from 1993 to 2008.
At minute 8 of "SpaceX IPO: Nice Try Though" Patrick Boyle mentions some circular finance: some of the banks which lent SpaceX $29 billion in March will be guaranteeing the IPO by promising to buy some shares to stabilize the price. Later he also points out that the banks financing the IPO have to buy Grok services and may be its main paying customers. Musk has done this sort of thing before eg. using Tesla (shareholder-owned) money to buy SolarCity which he partially owned. I knew a serial fraudster who moved to Texas for its business-friendly laws and courts.
He liked the piss-tinged blog post by Cape Fear Advisors and estimates that the Muskrat wants to raise $50-75 billion in the IPO.
It took Kaiser Bill to break the economic power of London and Paris, but the Muskrat thinks he can speedrun that game for the New York City map.
Pope Leo and Brad DeLong are great examples of people we can make tactical alliances with on single issues
Michael Burry is one of the investors who is shorting big tech. (Business Insider - paywalled Substack). I just invest much less in the USA than its 60% share of the global stock market, and less than 40% of that in big tech.
Most leading Rationalists are autistic, but many of them are in denial. Many are Jewish or have Jewish parents. You can debate which kind of folly let them embrace eugenics and white supremacism: are they brain-proud and desperate to believe that they were destined from birth to rule? Sure that they just have eccentric Ashkenazi genius genes not inferior Autistic genes? Naive that the deportations would stop with black and brown people? Their favourite Catholic fantasy author had some warnings for them.
Masnick also has a story on how Musk got away with hiding just how many Twitter shares he owned when he bought the company https://www.techdirt.com/2026/05/11/elon-musk-settles-sec-lawsuit-for-spare-change-proving-once-again-that-rules-are-for-other-people/
Mike Masnick had a look at Twitter’s financials in the SpaceX IPO. From $4.5 billion in ad revenue in 2021, twitter + Grok is down to $3 billion ad revenue a year (and losing $6 billion a year just on the CSAM-generating chatbot). His billionaire friends tossed in $2 billion or $250 million each into the kitty after a brief chat back in 2022.
Back in my day California perverts said “don’t scene in public”