counterpointresearch.com

Global smartphone shipments are forecast to fall 12% YoY in 2026, dropping just below 1.1 billion units, the lowest annual volume since 2013. A severe, supply‑driven memory crunch will be the primary trigger of the downturn, which is expected to extend well into 2027, disrupting OEM portfolios and delaying launches across the industry. Premium segments will remain comparatively resilient, while lower segments will face the sharpest margin and affordability pressures due to shrinking LPDDR4 supply and rising component costs. As a result, OEMs focused on lower segments and emerging markets will take the biggest hit.Industry consolidation is now a baseline scenario, as smaller vendors struggle with rising BOM costs, shrinking addressable markets, and limited ability to absorb price shocks.Recovery is unlikely before late 2027, with meaningful improvement dependent on new memory supply coming online. Underlying market fundamentals and replacement cycles will remain structurally altered through the end of the decade. Seoul, Beijing, Berlin, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, Taipei, Tokyo – February 27, 2026 Global smartphone shipments ended 2025 with low single digit YoY growth, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and healthy demand during the holiday season. However, the market is set for a major reversal in 2026, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker, with shipments forecasted to decline 12.4% YoY, marking the sharpest annual contraction ever.