"Take THAT, puny Roman Empire!"

Explanation: The Germanic warlord Arminius (sometimes known as Hermann in German), initially an ally of Rome, would turn on Rome in seeking the unification of the Germanic tribes (under him) against Roman expansion. In a stunning ambush of a Roman commander who (foolishly) trusted Arminius, Arminius managed to wipe out some three Legions of the Empire - nearly 10% of the Empire’s military forces - in a single battle!

Time for a feast, countrymen!

(or for the even goofier version of this 19th century student’s song)

… however, Arminius, despite being familiar with Romans, apparently forgot one of the defining features of their foreign policy towards enemies. Relentless grudge-bearing brutality. After licking their wounds, the Roman Empire would launch multiple ‘punitive’ campaigns against the rebellious Germanic tribes in general and Arminius in particular. Arminius’s own brother would remain aligned with the Roman forces, as would numerous Germanic tribes who felt Roman overlords were a better deal than a ‘King Arminius’, leading to an effective civil war accompanying the Roman punitive campaigns.

True to form, first under the cautious Tiberius, then under the more-aggressive and daring Roman commander Germanicus (meaning ‘Conqueror of Germania’, rather than anything nice and relatable), Rome would drag in eight Legions, plus assisting forces, to carry out the next five campaigns against Germania, putting much of the country to the sword and burning rebel villages. This would define Roman policy towards Germania for the next ~300 years. The initial campaigns would drive the defeated Arminius to take refuge amongst Germanic tribes deeper in the interior - resulting in a particularly unfriendly (but also un-Roman) Germanic tribesman assassinating Arminius for attempting to become king over Germania. Many gods, no masters?

Interesting enough, the loss of the three Legions would arrest the Roman Empire’s expansion into Germania. The Roman Empire was much more cautious about expansion than the Roman Republic was - failed wars end political careers. When your term of office is “One or two years,” the incentive is to roll the fucking dice - if you lose, it’s not that much worse for your political career than doing nothing of interest the whole time. Better to be infamous than unknown!

However, when the power to start a war or not rested with an autocrat with a life-term, with both term and life ending if you lose power… suddenly, only sure things seem worth fighting. By making Germania seem politically expensive and uncertain, the Roman expansion into Germania was arrested entirely for the life-terms of at least two Emperors (Augustus, who suffered the loss, and Tiberius, whose career was shaped by it), at which point the momentum of Rome’s expansion into Germania was largely lost.

This, though fortuitous for Arminius’s broader cause (if not necessarily his aspirations to kingship), was unlikely to be Arminius’s thinking, as the change was not really even fully understood by the Romans themselves at the time. Augustus was, at the time, the first Emperor, and did not make the position of ‘Emperor’ wholly clear anyway. Many Romans would have regarded the position of ‘Emperor’ as a strange and unique cluttering of titles. It probably won’t last! Just another fad in our ever-chaotic Republic, right?

… right…?

Explanation: The Germanic warlord Arminius (sometimes known as Hermann in German), initially an ally of Rome, would turn on Rome in seeking the unification of the Germanic tribes (under him) against Roman expansion. In a stunning ambush of a Roman commander who (foolishly) trusted Arminius, Arminius managed to wipe out some three Legions of the Empire - nearly 10% of the Empire’s military forces - in a single battle!

Time for a feast, countrymen!

(or for the even goofier version of this 19th century student’s song)

… however, Arminius, despite being familiar with Romans, apparently forgot one of the defining features of their foreign policy towards enemies. Relentless grudge-bearing brutality. After licking their wounds, the Roman Empire would launch multiple ‘punitive’ campaigns against the rebellious Germanic tribes in general and Arminius in particular. Arminius’s own brother would remain aligned with the Roman forces, as would numerous Germanic tribes who felt Roman overlords were a better deal than a ‘King Arminius’, leading to an effective civil war accompanying the Roman punitive campaigns.

True to form, first under the cautious Tiberius, then under the more-aggressive and daring Roman commander Germanicus (meaning ‘Conqueror of Germania’, rather than anything nice and relatable), Rome would drag in eight Legions, plus assisting forces, to carry out the next five campaigns against Germania, putting much of the country to the sword and burning rebel villages. This would define Roman policy towards Germania for the next ~300 years. The initial campaigns would drive the defeated Arminius to take refuge amongst Germanic tribes deeper in the interior - resulting in a particularly unfriendly (but also un-Roman) Germanic tribesman assassinating Arminius for attempting to become king over Germania. Many gods, no masters?

Interesting enough, the loss of the three Legions would arrest the Roman Empire’s expansion into Germania. The Roman Empire was much more cautious about expansion than the Roman Republic was - failed wars end political careers. When your term of office is “One or two years,” the incentive is to roll the fucking dice - if you lose, it’s not that much worse for your political career than doing nothing of interest the whole time. Better to be infamous than unknown!

However, when the power to start a war or not rested with an autocrat with a life-term, with both term and life ending if you lose power… suddenly, only sure things seem worth fighting. By making Germania seem politically expensive and uncertain, the Roman expansion into Germania was arrested entirely for the life-terms of at least two Emperors (Augustus, who suffered the loss, and Tiberius, whose career was shaped by it), at which point the momentum of Rome’s expansion into Germania was largely lost.

This, though fortuitous for Arminius’s broader cause (if not necessarily his aspirations to kingship), was unlikely to be Arminius’s thinking, as the change was not really even fully understood by the Romans themselves at the time. Augustus was, at the time, the first Emperor, and did not make the position of ‘Emperor’ wholly clear anyway. Many Romans would have regarded the position of ‘Emperor’ as a strange and unique cluttering of titles. It probably won’t last! Just another fad in our ever-chaotic Republic, right?

… right…?