Predictive History: Geo-Strategy #8: The Iran Trap

In his May 29, 2024 class, Jiang Xueqin explains that an American invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic mistake:

If Trump were to win a second term, he would likely contemplate invading Iran. While an initial invasion would seem successful, American forces would quickly become bogged down in Iran’s mountainous terrain.

The American invasion would be similar to Athens’ invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE, as described in Thucydides’ The Peloponnesian War. Despite its initial successes, the Athenians couldn’t re-supply themselves, and their entire expedition was wiped out.

This disastrous defeat turned the war in Sparta’s favor, and spelled the downfall of the Athenian empire.

Could the American empire in Iran suffer the same fate as the Athenian empire in Sicily?